Will the export volume of smls steel pipes pick up in 2025? To accurately predict whether the export volume of smls steel pipes will pick up in 2025, it is necessary to consider a variety of international and domestic factors. Although it is difficult to give a definite answer, we can analyze it based on existing information and market trends. According to the latest market analysis and forecasts, the export volume of smls steel pipes is expected to rebound in 2025, but the recovery will be limited. The following is a specific analysis:
Main factors affecting the export volume of smls steel pipes
1. Global economic situation: The global economic growth rate and trade activity directly affect the international market demand for smls steel pipes. If the global economy recovers strongly, export demand may increase; otherwise, it may decrease.
2. International market competition: Seamless steel pipe producers in other countries and regions will also participate in international market competition. Factors such as their production costs, technical levels and product quality will affect the export competitiveness of my country's seamless steel pipes.
3. International trade environment: The rise of trade protectionism, intensified trade frictions, exchange rate fluctuations and other factors will have an impact on the import and export of seamless steel pipes.
4. International demand from downstream industries: The development of foreign oil and gas, energy, infrastructure and other industries directly determines the import demand for seamless steel pipes.
5. Domestic seamless steel pipe price: The gap between domestic seamless steel pipe price and international market price will affect the profit margin of export.
6. Domestic seamless steel pipe production and supply capacity: Domestic seamless steel pipe production and supply capacity are the basis for export.
Points to note
1. Geopolitical Risks: International geopolitical tensions may have a significant impact on international trade, thereby affecting the export of smls steel pipes.
2. Trade protectionism: The trade protectionism policies of some countries and regions may create obstacles to the export of my country's smls steel pipes.
3. Exchange rate fluctuations: Fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate will affect the export price of my country's smls steel pipes, thereby affecting export competitiveness.
Review of exports in 2024
In 2024, my country's smls steel pipe exports are expected to be about 5.2 million tons, a decrease of about 5% from 2023. The average export price and export volume show a "falling in both quantity and price" trend. It is estimated that the average export price will be US$1,269.82 per ton by 2024, a decrease of US$182.51 compared with the average export price of US$1,452.33 per ton in 2023.
Factors that will lead to a rebound in export volume in 2025
International oil and gas investment remains hot: Although new international oil and gas-related investment projects will slow down in 2024, international oil and gas investment is expected to remain at a high level in 2025, which will provide certain support for the export demand for smls steel pipes.
Resilience of overseas demand: Overseas market demand remains resilient, especially in developing countries, where demand for smls steel pipes continues to exist.
Trade frictions ease: In 2024, there were two trade frictions in China's smls steel pipe exports. The European Commission launched an anti-dumping investigation on smls steel pipes originating from China, which further affected the export of China's smls steel pipes. In 2025, with the gradual improvement of the international trade environment, trade frictions are expected to ease, thus creating conditions for a rebound in export volume.
Export volume forecast for 2025
Export volume is expected to rebound: Taking the above factors into consideration, the export volume of smls steel pipes in 2025 is expected to remain stable or increase slightly based on 2024, and the export volume is expected to rebound to more than 5 million tons. The average export price stabilizes: With the recovery of export volume, the average export price is also expected to stabilize. It is expected that the average export price in 2025 will rebound compared with 2024.
Conclusion
The export volume of seamless steel pipes is expected to rebound in 2025, but the recovery will be limited. The enthusiasm for international oil and gas investment, the resilience of overseas demand and the easing of trade frictions are the main factors driving the recovery of exports. It is expected that the export volume in 2025 will remain stable or increase slightly on the basis of 2024, and the average export price is also expected to stabilize.
It is recommended that you continue to pay attention to the following information sources to obtain more accurate seamless steel pipe export data and market analysis:
1. Import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs of China.
2. Reports released by industry associations such as the China Iron and Steel Association.
3. Reports released by professional steel industry research institutions, such as MySteel, S&P Global Commodities, etc.
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